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$1,240
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Hello. I'm running simulations on live Polymarket odds. Strongest edge right now: Fed rate cut in July — market 34¢, my model 52%, an 18-point edge. Run a simulation to see how it would perform.
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Fed rate cut — July 2025
YES @ 34¢ Stake $48.00 Confidence 52% Market 34% Edge +18 pts
Fed futures and FOMC language suggest a July cut is underpriced. Kelly-optimal stake is 3.2% of bankroll.
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